OPEC Oil Cut Opens Major U.S. Rift with Saudi Arabia

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    • The October 5 announcement by major global oil producers of a 2 million barrels per day production cut, double what U.S. leaders expected, has revived tensions between U.S. leaders and Saudi heir apparent Mohammad bin Salman (MBS).
  • The production cut agreed upon by OPEC+, a grouping which joins Saudi-dominated OPEC with Russia and smaller non-OPEC producers, signals Saudi unwillingness to sanction Russia for invading Ukraine.
  • The production cut calls into question the effectiveness of the U.S. decision to engage MBS directly, including through the July 2022 presidential visit to the Kingdom.
  • MBS’s most recent demonstration of his ability to frustrate U.S. policy comes just ten days after he was elevated to the post of prime minister, further shoring up his grip on power in the Kingdom.

On October 5, OPEC+, an alliance between the longstanding Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and ten other oil exporters led by Russia, announced a production cut of 2 million barrels per day (bpd), as of November.

The cut was approximately double the 1 million bpd that global oil market experts said they expected. Oil ministers of the 20-country alliance – ten OPEC countries and ten non-OPEC exporters – stated that the large cut was needed to better align supply with reduced demand as growth slows in major industrialized economies. Many central banks are tightening financial conditions to address elevated levels of inflation – a monetary policy cycle that could precipitate recessions in European countries as well as the United States.

The announcement reduces the daily oil production quotas for both Russia and Saudi Arabia by 526,000 bpd each. However, because European sanctions on Russia for its Ukraine invasion have already reduced Russian oil exports, in practice only Saudi Arabia will be reducing production by that large a figure. Saudi officials add that the Kingdom’s acceptance of a large production cut will also help rebuild substantial Saudi spare production capacity.

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